Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 New York 20,442
2 New Jersey 19,491
3 Rhode Island 15,824
4 Massachusetts 15,780
5 District of Columbia 14,583
6 Connecticut 13,003
7 Louisiana 12,301
8 Delaware 11,682
9 Illinois 11,354
10 Maryland 11,220
11 Arizona 10,249
12 Nebraska 9,855
13 Iowa 9,151
14 Mississippi 8,926
15 South Dakota 7,591
16 Alabama 7,581
17 Virginia 7,285
18 Pennsylvania 7,073
19 Georgia 7,046
20 Michigan 7,044
21 Indiana 6,887
22 Florida 6,813
23 Utah 6,805
24 South Carolina 6,728
25 Arkansas 6,712
26 Minnesota 6,364
27 North Carolina 6,072
28 Tennessee 6,060
29 Nevada 5,834
30 New Mexico 5,714
31 California 5,669
32 Colorado 5,642
33 Texas 5,475
34 Wisconsin 5,343
35 Kansas 5,000
36 North Dakota 4,655
37 Washington 4,469
38 Ohio 4,366
39 New Hampshire 4,236
40 Missouri 3,543
41 Kentucky 3,504
42 Oklahoma 3,328
43 Idaho 3,228
44 Wyoming 2,505
45 Maine 2,394
46 Puerto Rico 2,270
47 Oregon 2,013
48 Vermont 1,935
49 West Virginia 1,601
50 Alaska 1,483
51 Montana 859
52 Hawaii 624

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 Arizona 362
2 Florida 362
3 Nevada 282
4 South Carolina 278
5 Alabama 203
6 Texas 185
7 Mississippi 168
8 Arkansas 167
9 Utah 166
10 Georgia 165
11 Louisiana 165
12 California 143
13 North Carolina 140
14 Tennessee 126
15 Delaware 122
16 Idaho 115
17 Iowa 110
18 Kansas 96
19 Nebraska 93
20 New Mexico 91
21 Wisconsin 79
22 Minnesota 73
23 Oklahoma 69
24 Ohio 68
25 South Dakota 68
26 Washington 67
27 Missouri 64
28 Virginia 63
29 Maryland 62
30 Illinois 54
31 Indiana 54
32 North Dakota 51
33 District of Columbia 50
34 Wyoming 47
35 Kentucky 46
36 Oregon 43
37 Colorado 41
38 Pennsylvania 41
39 Alaska 38
40 Puerto Rico 34
41 Massachusetts 33
42 Rhode Island 32
43 Maine 29
44 Michigan 29
45 New York 29
46 Connecticut 28
47 Montana 28
48 West Virginia 26
49 New Jersey 25
50 New Hampshire 21
51 Hawaii 8
52 Vermont 5

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New Jersey 1,687
2 New York 1,600
3 Connecticut 1,211
4 Massachusetts 1,174
5 Rhode Island 892
6 District of Columbia 780
7 Louisiana 688
8 Michigan 617
9 Illinois 561
10 Maryland 525
11 Delaware 520
12 Pennsylvania 520
13 Indiana 389
14 Mississippi 355
15 Colorado 292
16 New Hampshire 269
17 Minnesota 260
18 Georgia 257
19 Ohio 241
20 New Mexico 235
21 Iowa 225
22 Arizona 219
23 Virginia 203
24 Alabama 189
25 Washington 173
26 Missouri 167
27 Nevada 163
28 Florida 160
29 California 151
30 Nebraska 141
31 South Carolina 139
32 Wisconsin 134
33 Kentucky 130
34 North Carolina 127
35 North Dakota 115
36 South Dakota 102
37 Oklahoma 97
38 Kansas 94
39 Vermont 89
40 Arkansas 87
41 Tennessee 85
42 Texas 83
43 Maine 78
44 Utah 52
45 West Virginia 51
46 Idaho 50
47 Oregon 48
48 Puerto Rico 47
49 Wyoming 34
50 Montana 20
51 Alaska 16
52 Hawaii 12

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 Rhode Island 5
2 Massachusetts 4
3 Mississippi 4
4 Arizona 2
5 District of Columbia 2
6 New Jersey 2
7 Alabama 1
8 Arkansas 1
9 Connecticut 1
10 Florida 1
11 Illinois 1
12 Indiana 1
13 Kansas 1
14 Maryland 1
15 Minnesota 1
16 New York 1
17 South Carolina 1
18 South Dakota 1
19 Virginia 1
20 Alaska 0
21 California 0
22 Colorado 0
23 Delaware 0
24 Georgia 0
25 Hawaii 0
26 Idaho 0
27 Iowa 0
28 Kentucky 0
29 Louisiana 0
30 Maine 0
31 Michigan 0
32 Missouri 0
33 Montana 0
34 Nebraska 0
35 Nevada 0
36 New Hampshire 0
37 New Mexico 0
38 North Carolina 0
39 North Dakota 0
40 Ohio 0
41 Oklahoma 0
42 Oregon 0
43 Pennsylvania 0
44 Puerto Rico 0
45 Tennessee 0
46 Texas 0
47 Utah 0
48 Vermont 0
49 Washington 0
50 West Virginia 0
51 Wisconsin 0
52 Wyoming 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Trousdale Tennessee 131,336 1 99
Lake Tennessee 98,489 2 99
Dakota Nebraska 88,785 3 99
Buena Vista Iowa 86,340 4 99
Lincoln Arkansas 79,699 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 13,467 210 93
Richland South Carolina 8,089 499 84
Orange California 4,161 1057 66
York South Carolina 4,114 1065 66
Pierce Washington 3,139 1342 57

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Hancock Georgia 3,784 1 99
Randolph Georgia 3,688 2 99
Terrell Georgia 3,165 3 99
Early Georgia 3,042 4 99
Essex New Jersey 2,529 5 99
Richland South Carolina 197 675 78
Davidson Tennessee 158 778 75
Pierce Washington 108 993 68
Orange California 104 1015 67
York South Carolina 43 1521 51

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons